Jared Diamond was once all the rage. His book, Guns, Gems and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies was one of those books about which everyone was once talking. Provocative thesis, well written (though the “word to intriguing idea” ratio was a bit too high), much discussed.
But, that was almost a quarter of a century ago. His subsequent books were not quite the rage. In his latest, Diamond plaintively complains about a review of one of his books casting about for lessons which we can draw from prehistory; the reviewer was unimpressed, ending his review: “We have virtually no credible evidence about the world until yesterday and, until we do, the only defensible intellectual position is to shut up.”
Pity Jared Diamond.
But, Diamond, at the age of 82, tries one more time to regain his celebrity status with Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis.
The Table of Contents reveals the theme. Individuals have crises; we can think about how they respond. Here is a chapter on that. Nations also have crises. Here are six case studies of past crises. Some crises are still underway. Here are four more chapters on current crises.
You now have some expectation about what you will find in this book. You imagine what you will discover when reading it. You may even be intrigued to find out what Jared Diamond (the author of Guns, Germs, and Steel!!) can show us about the nature of crises.
But, while you now know what this book is about, you are wrong. You don’t have to take my word for it, though. On page 11, Diamond tells us, “Readers and reviewers of a book often gradually discover, as they read, that the book’s coverage and approach aren’t what they expected or wanted.” A book really means this book. Yeah, Diamond wrote that about his own book.
That sentence in in the midst of the most defensive prologue I have ever read. You can hear Diamond screaming on every page at those “readers and reviewers” who said, “Uh, Jared…what exactly are you trying to accomplish in this mess of a manuscript?”
“You fools,” Diamond indirectly screams:
This book is: a comparative, narrative, exploratory study of crisis and selective change operating over many decades in seven modern nations, all of which I have much personal experience, and viewed from the perspective of selective change in personal crises.
That sentence comes on page 12. I read that and the following 10 pages of defensive explanation of the “comparative, narrative, exploratory” method and I was still surprised that the book’s coverage and approach were not what I expected.
Take the historical case studies. There are six of them. Finland in the 20th century; Japan in the 19th and 20th centuries, Chile in the late 20th century, Indonesia in the late 20th century, Germany in the second half of the 20th century, Australia in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Notice a pattern in that set of case studies? They are all modern, but that seems a weak connection. They aren’t even all countries that had an obvious crisis. As Diamond notes: “While Australians themselves may not apply the word ‘crisis’ to Australia, I find it useful to think of Australia as having undergone a slowly unfolding crisis…” A crisis that slowly unfolds over centuries?
So, what does unite these crisis? Fortunately Diamond tells us the secret: these are the countries he has visited in his lifetime. He has lived for extended periods of time in six of them, and he has relatives and colleagues and students from Japan! So, obviously these countries are the best choices for a study of crises!
OK, so the selection criterion is weak (to put it mildly). How are the chapters themselves? For the six historical studies, as long as you set aside the question of why this history is in this book, they are pleasant reading. The less you know about the 20th century history of the country, the more you will learn. The prose style flows reasonably well, though an editor could have come in handy to eliminate the times when content was repeated within the same chapter.
But, by the end, it is hard to see much meaningful connection between reading about how Finland fought the Soviet Union in World War II, the Meiji Era in Japan, how Allende and Pinochet battled over Chile, the Sukarno and Suharto years of Indonesia, Germany after World War II, and how Australia weaned itself of the British Empire. All interesting stories to be sure…but even still, you are left scratching your head a bit.
Then the head scratching gets much worse when Diamond move to the current crises. Four chapters: one on Japan, two on the United States, one on the whole world.
Start with Japan. What is their ongoing crisis? They have a giant demographic problem, not enough kids. It isn’t clear why Diamond singles out Japan to talk about this crisis. Oh, but wait. The problem is that Japan should really want population decline. And they should have more immigration otherwise they will have that population decline that Diamond thinks they should have, so…I have no idea what Diamond is arguing. Japan also doesn’t treat women like equals. And they really should apologize to China and South Korea. And…what is the crisis here?
Moving along to the United States. Two chapters of problems. Political polarization is really bad… because if we don’t fix that we are going to have a coup like in Chile or Indonesia. Yes, he really wants us to seriously consider a military takeover of the US. Oh, except he then backs off the military takeover to give us the scenario where “one political party” (zero points for guessing which one he means) using “the police, the National Guard, the army reserve, or even army itself to suppress political opposition.” See, not a military takeover!
But wait, there’s more. A whole chapter of other things Diamond thinks are crises in the US. And then we get to the world problems and…well, you are not going to believe this. The number one problem facing the world is…drum roll, please…the threat of nuclear winter after a massive worldwide exchange of nuclear bomb attacks. Yep. Nuclear Winter is back, baby! Then we get the obligatory climate change, running out of fossil fuels (wouldn’t that help with the climate change thing??), and global inequality which is going to cause riots near Diamond’s nice home in LA (his example).
All four of the chapters about the current crises can be summed up in one sentence. There is a crisis because countries in the world are not all doing what Jared Diamond wants them to do.
What is the glue that holds this whole book together? It is back in chapter 2 where Diamond tells us there are 12 “Factors related to the outcomes of personal crises.” I won’t torment you with the list because Diamond doesn’t really care about his list. He then takes that list and morphs it into 12 “Factors related to the outcome of national crises.” And, he keep talking about those 12 factors over and over.
No need to bother with a discussion of the factors, though. It turns out these factors don’t explain anything at all. They are just there to be a faux linking device. You don’t have to take my word for it, though. For example, from Diamond’s conclusion “core values of nations [Factor 11] can make it either easier or harder for a nation to adopt selective change.” “I expect that it usually won’t be profitable for social scientists to generalize about a nation as being uniformly either fixed or rigid [Factor 10].” And so on. The factors never really rise to the level of having any explanatory value.
So, why are they there? The clue comes in the number 12. Diamond is adamant that 12 factors is the right number. He says so in the introduction. If a book has fewer factors, “throw it away without reading any further.” (Yes, that is an actual quotation.) If a book has more factors, “throw that book away also.” (Yep. Also a quotation.) You see, Diamond has found that a dozen factors is the right number.
Which makes one wonder: what is the source of Diamond’s fixation on 12 things? Is there some other book which has 12 factors? Some other book written by a public intellectual who is currently getting all the fame and glory and party invitations that Jared Diamond used to get? A book with 12 factors about how to manage life, maybe?
Oh yeah. Jordan Peterson: 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos.
Suddenly this whole book makes total sense. Imagine a guy who used to be in the limelight. He is aging. He may only have one book left in him. But, he really wants that limelight one last time. How to get it? He sees Jordan Peterson and his 12 rules for life. Suddenly the idea is born. Peterson has cornered the market on helping individuals with their crises. Jared Diamond can go one step better and help whole nations with their crises! Sure Peterson gets to talk to crowds of adoring individuals. But, Diamond can top that, he can talk to crowds of adoring nations! He will be the Jordan Peterson for the nation state. Diamond can help you with your national crisis!
Who is going to break the news to Jared Diamond that he is not going to displace Jordan Peterson on the talk-show circuit?
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